November 14, 2008
Just a few things I want to talk about before the weekend. As everyone should now, tomorrow (Saturday) is the big Brock Lesnar – Randy Couture fight. I have never been more excited about a fight than I am about this one. The second I heard about the event I started plans for a big UFC party at my house. As it turns out I won’t be having said party as I ended up taking a booking to do a guest ref spot on a wrestling show in Banff Alberta the same night. I initially didn’t realize the ref gig and the UFC show coincided but I agreed to do the event so that’s that.
It’s going to be a great show with both Al Snow, Shannon Moore, and a few of my students booked for the event so I expect to have a great time, but I am cursing myself for having to miss the UFC event. I am still ordering the UFC show and will be recording it on my DVR so that I can rush home from Banff to watch the fight late that night.
My official predicting is Brock Lesnar winning the UFC Heavyweight Title. I know a lot of people will say I’m crazy; it’s only his 4th MMA fight and he’s fighting arguably the best ever, but I’m still picking Brock. I will even go further for the sake of being specific, and predict a 2nd or 3rd round ground and pound stoppage for Brock Lesnar (possibly from knees to the body). My theory behind this is simple. I don’t see either guy as a submission guy, I doubt it will stay on the feet for too long, because the second one of these guys starts losing on their feet they will go for a takedown, which leaves this match a battle on the ground.
With a ground game, and neither guy being big on submissions this is a wrestling match for position, to set up ground and pound. Both are great wrestlers, but Brock is way younger, way bigger, way stronger, and possibly even quicker, which leaves Randy’s only advantage being that of experience. While experience does count for a lot, this is now predominately a wrestling match, and Brock Lesnar is far more experience at pressure wrestling matches than his 2-1 MMA record indicates.
I am even more sure of my prediction after watching the UFC 91 Count Down special. The show was fantastic and focused mainly on the career of Randy Couture. I didn’t follow UFC during much of Randy’s career so I learned a lot during this show. The thing that struck me the most while watching the history of Randy’s career, apart from him being awesome, is that the majority of Randy’s big wins were against fighters who were predominantly stand up fighters. Before people start sending me email explaining the ground credentials of people who have lost to Randy Couture, I’m just saying that the majority of big Couture “upset” victories where over guys who were strong stand up fighter who Randy managed to take down and get ground and pound stoppage wins over. I don’t see this happening with Brock Lesnar. Unless Randy can rock Brock hard and I mean really hard with a punch early this thing is going to the ground and I don’t see even the great Randy Couture controlling a 280-pound highly skilled wrestler on the ground.
I also want to comment on The Ultimate Fighter because I’m really enjoying this season. This season is working so perfectly. One of the primary purposes of this show is to make us care about the upcoming fight between rival coaches and boy is it working. Before the start of this season I didn’t know jack about Nogueira nor care all that much about this fight. The season isn’t even over yet and Nogueira is quickly becoming my favourite fighter. This guy is the greatest and nicest man on the planet and the more I see of him and Frank Mir, the more I want to see Nogueira kill Mir. Mir is an Ass and Nogueira is a saint. I doubt I would have ordered this PPV before watching this show, and now I guarantee you I’m ordering it. Thumbs up to this show!!!!